Grendel
02-09-2008, 05:45 PM
There's been a lot of talk in the news about delegates, delegate counts, and the very odd-sounding entities known as "superdelegates." So here's the skinny on the process that's going on on the Democratic side of the field. From the Washington Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2008/02/03/DI2008020302985.html):
Who are superdelegates?There are 796 of them (excluding those from Michigan and Florida), and they are Democratic members of Congress, Democratic governors and elder statesmen of the party (Gore, Bill Clinton, Tom Daschle, etc). But, the largest bloc of them are just old fashioned rank-and-file local activists, 411 of them being members of the DNC.
How do they vote?Super delegates can back a candidate one day, then back another candidate the next day, and still another the day after that. (Bottom line, however they feel like on that particular day.)
Why is this important to this race?We've done a bad job of explaining this, but it is now basically mathematically impossible for either Clinton or Obama to win the nomination through the regular voting process (meaning the super-delegates decide this one, baby!).
Here's the math. There are 3,253 pledged delegates, those doled out based on actual voting in primaries and caucuses. And you need 2,025 to win the nomination.
To date, about 55% of those 3,253 delegates have been pledged in the voting process -- with Clinton and Obama roughly splitting them at about 900 delegates a piece.
That means there are now only about 1,400 delegates left up for grabs in the remaining states and territories voting.
So, do the math. If they both have about 900 pledged delegates so far, they need to win more than 1,100 of the remaining 1,400 delegates to win the nomination through actual voting.
Ain't gonna happen, barring a stunning scandal or some new crazy revelation. So, they'll keep fighting this thing out, each accumulating their chunk of delegates, one of them holding a slight edge and both finishing the voting process with 1,600 or so delegates.
And then the super delegates decide this thing.
That's the math.
So there you have it. Millions of Democratic voters cast their ballots and it comes down to a handful of politically connected (not to mention, obligated) party muckety-mucks to make the call.
This is no way to choose a candidate.
Rather than try to persuade someone to stand aside (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/07/us/politics/07campaign.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper&oref=slogin) Howard Dean should be looking to secure an agreement from the various superdelegates to back the candidate with the lion's share of the popularly decided delegates.
Who are superdelegates?There are 796 of them (excluding those from Michigan and Florida), and they are Democratic members of Congress, Democratic governors and elder statesmen of the party (Gore, Bill Clinton, Tom Daschle, etc). But, the largest bloc of them are just old fashioned rank-and-file local activists, 411 of them being members of the DNC.
How do they vote?Super delegates can back a candidate one day, then back another candidate the next day, and still another the day after that. (Bottom line, however they feel like on that particular day.)
Why is this important to this race?We've done a bad job of explaining this, but it is now basically mathematically impossible for either Clinton or Obama to win the nomination through the regular voting process (meaning the super-delegates decide this one, baby!).
Here's the math. There are 3,253 pledged delegates, those doled out based on actual voting in primaries and caucuses. And you need 2,025 to win the nomination.
To date, about 55% of those 3,253 delegates have been pledged in the voting process -- with Clinton and Obama roughly splitting them at about 900 delegates a piece.
That means there are now only about 1,400 delegates left up for grabs in the remaining states and territories voting.
So, do the math. If they both have about 900 pledged delegates so far, they need to win more than 1,100 of the remaining 1,400 delegates to win the nomination through actual voting.
Ain't gonna happen, barring a stunning scandal or some new crazy revelation. So, they'll keep fighting this thing out, each accumulating their chunk of delegates, one of them holding a slight edge and both finishing the voting process with 1,600 or so delegates.
And then the super delegates decide this thing.
That's the math.
So there you have it. Millions of Democratic voters cast their ballots and it comes down to a handful of politically connected (not to mention, obligated) party muckety-mucks to make the call.
This is no way to choose a candidate.
Rather than try to persuade someone to stand aside (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/07/us/politics/07campaign.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper&oref=slogin) Howard Dean should be looking to secure an agreement from the various superdelegates to back the candidate with the lion's share of the popularly decided delegates.